The global oil market shows moderate optimism in early September. After a long period of instability, crude prices have strengthened, although analysts note that the balance between supply and demand remains fragile. Market participants are closely watching OPEC+ decisions, analysts’ forecasts, and the growing impact of geopolitics.

OPEC+ adjusts its strategy

OPEC+ announced a gradual increase in oil production starting in October. The decision comes after several months of restrictions, when exporting countries deliberately kept production at reduced levels. This time the increase will be much more modest than in previous periods, signaling the group’s intention to maintain control of the market and avoid a price collapse.

At the same time, experts emphasize that the move is largely political. OPEC+ seeks to demonstrate flexibility and readiness to respond to shifts in the global economy, where fuel consumption remains under pressure from weak demand.

Price dynamics and forecasts

Following the OPEC+ announcement, Brent prices settled around $65–66 per barrel, while WTI approached $62. Additional support comes from expectations of new restrictions on Russian crude exports. However, analysts do not rule out that by year-end the market may face oversupply, especially if global growth remains sluggish.

Key factors influencing oil prices:

• cautious production increases by OPEC+ countries;
• prospects of new sanctions against certain suppliers;
• weak consumer demand in Europe and Asia;
• forecasts from analysts suggesting a potential drop in Brent to $55 per barrel by the end of the year.

These elements create a contradictory picture: short-term price growth is coupled with the risk of a long-term correction.

Geopolitics and energy security

The oil market is increasingly shaped by geopolitical factors. A major development is the deepening energy cooperation between Russia and China, who plan to expand gas infrastructure bypassing Europe. Further tension arises from China’s actions near Taiwan, where drilling has begun in disputed waters.

Geopolitical factors raising concerns for the market:

• growing dependence of some states on Russian-Chinese cooperation;
• risk of rising military tensions in the Asia-Pacific region;
• pressure on energy security of countries reliant on fuel imports.

These processes fuel instability and force importers to look for ways to diversify supplies.

Thus, the oil market today balances between modest price growth and the threat of a correction in the coming months. OPEC+ decisions, analyst forecasts, and geopolitical developments shape a fragile equilibrium that could shift at any moment. For exporting countries, the main challenge remains maintaining revenues, while for importers it is ensuring stable supplies in an increasingly turbulent environment.